The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there is an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event developing between June and August 2026, with probabilities of it continuing until at least November remaining near or above 90%.
Most forecast models suggest the developing El Niño will be at least moderate in strength and could become a strong event, raising the risk of droughts, heavy rainfall and heatwaves.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a recurring climate phenomenon marked by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon can affect rainfall, droughts, storms and temperatures across Asia, Africa, the Americas and Australia.
Experts have warned that El Niño could intensify the effects of climate change, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events across the world. Francisco Aquino, head of the climate centre at Brazil’s Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, said, “When you have an El Niño over what climate change already brought, the risks are enormous.”
“El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said.
When will its effects be felt?
The climate phenomenon typically begins developing during spring and early summer before intensifying through autumn and peaking between November and February. While some weather changes may become noticeable in the coming months, many of the strongest impacts are expected from late 2026 into early 2027.
According to the WMO, preparations are essential as El Niño could increase the likelihood of drought, intense rainfall and extreme heat in many regions. “We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
How could it affect travel?
Southeast Asia: Countries such as Indonesia may initially experience drier and sunnier weather, which could appeal to holidaymakers. However, prolonged dry conditions can also increase the risk of forest fires and may affect destinations across Indonesia, with smoke potentially affecting neighbouring countries such as Malaysia and Singapore.
East Africa: Parts of East Africa could see heavier rainfall later in the year. While this may create lush landscapes and improve wildlife viewing opportunities, excessive rain could lead to flooding, muddy roads and disruptions to transport in remote safari areas.
Southern Africa: El Niño is often associated with hotter and drier conditions across parts of southern Africa. While wildlife may gather around shrinking water sources, prolonged drought could put increasing pressure on communities, water resources and wildlife.
South America: Peru, Ecuador and parts of South America could face unusually heavy rainfall and flooding. Such conditions may affect transportation networks, outdoor tourism activities and access to popular destinations.
Will all travel be affected?
Not necessarily. Some destinations may actually benefit from El Niño-related weather patterns. The Caribbean could experience a quieter hurricane season, while some regions may enjoy longer periods of dry weather and sunshine.
However, favourable weather conditions can quickly become disruptive when they turn extreme. Heavy rainfall can trigger flooding and landslides, while prolonged dry spells can lead to drought, water shortages and wildfire risks.
How El Niño could affect India
India has historically associated El Niño with weaker monsoon and drought-like conditions. A study analysing more than a century of weather data found that while not every El Niño led to drought, most severe droughts in the country coincided with El Niño years.
A weaker monsoon could pose challenges for India’s agriculture sector, where a large share of farming remains dependent on rainfall. Even irrigated farming relies heavily on groundwater resources, which are replenished by seasonal rains.
Reduced rainfall may affect crop production and farm incomes, while also putting upward pressure on food prices. This could add to inflationary concerns, especially at a time when global uncertainties continue to impact commodity markets.
Monsoon rains are also critical for water security, with a significant portion of India’s drinking water supply linked to groundwater reserves. Lower rainfall could therefore increase stress on water resources in several regions. Travellers visiting India during the monsoon season could encounter reduced rainfall and higher temperatures in some regions.
