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The uncertainty in the NC-led coalition also offers BJP unexpected opportunities—all hinging on coalition discipline, independent MLAs, and possible abstentions
The 2025 Rajya Sabha elections in J&K have once again opened a profound rift between NC and Congress and a deep mistrust. (PTI)
The Rajya Sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir scheduled for October 24 have ignited temporary political upheaval, particularly between allies National Conference and Congress, over seat-sharing arrangements. The underlying bitterness stems from both the method of seat distribution and competing political interests, with direct consequences for alliance stability and voting outcomes.
The NC-led coalition emerged from the 2024 assembly elections, with NC holding 41 seats, Congress six, CPI(M) one, and support from five independents, giving them a comfortable majority in the 88-member assembly over the BJP’s 28 seats. The Omar Abdullah-led government formed a limited cabinet and offered no position to its pre-poll ally, the Congress. The NC was able to dispel the Opposition’s allegations that it would form a government with the BJP after the polls by entering a pre-poll alliance with the Grand Old Party. The Congress’s performance was dismal, and in some seats, “friendly contests” even took place after negotiations failed during the assembly elections.
Now in the Rajya Sabha, initial seat-sharing talks promised Congress a “safe” Rajya Sabha seat, which party leaders claim was reneged upon when NC announced its own candidates for all four seats, leaving Congress only the weak fourth seat to contest.
Congress leadership, including J&K PCC chief Tariq Hamid Karra, expressed deep dissatisfaction, citing breach of trust as NC unilaterally declared candidates, prompting Congress to opt out of the elections altogether rather than contest an “unsafe” seat likely lost to BJP manoeuvring.
National Conference president Dr Farooq Abdullah had met senior Congress leader Sonia Gandhi over seat-sharing for the Rajya Sabha elections with the discussions also involving Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and chief minister Omar Abdullah. But the talks spiralled into a deadlock.
The dispute has deeply strained the NC-Congress alliance. Although the Congress is furious, it lacks the numbers to damage its INDIA bloc partner in any meaningful way under the current political scenario.
This schism has played into BJP’s hands, as any abstention or withdrawal of Congress support weakens NC’s position in the assembly and makes BJP victories on contested seats more plausible through potential horse trading and support from abstaining MLAs.
To win in the J&K assembly, a candidate needs 45 votes for the first two Rajya Sabha seats, and 30 votes for the third and fourth seats, each. The NC and its coalition, with roughly 53 pledged MLAs, should in theory, secure three of the four seats. BJP, with 28 votes, is short even for a single seat unless it can secure cross-votes or abstentions.
After Congress withdrew, NC named its spokesperson Imran Nabi Dar as the fourth candidate, showing their intention to contest all seats independently.
Independents, PDP (3), AAP (1), and People’s Conference (1) together hold few seats but could be crucial in closely fought seats if NC-Congress differences persist.
Peoples Conference chairman and MLA Sajad Gani Lone, a fierce critique of Omar Abdullah, has already announced that his party would abstain from voting in the elections.
Mehbooba Mufti’s proposal to condition PDP’s Rajya Sabha support on the National Conference backing her Land Rights and Regularisation of Daily Wagers Bills also seems well crafted. Economically, regularisation would cost between Rs 5,000-Rs 6,000 crore annually, which neither the current government nor Mehbooba Mufti’s administration during 2015-18 could afford. Since 1980, only three private member bills have ever been passed in the Jammu & Kashmir Assembly.
The 2025 Rajya Sabha elections in J&K have once again opened a profound rift between NC and Congress and a deep mistrust. This introduces uncertainty into the NC-led coalition and offers BJP unexpected opportunities—all hinging on coalition discipline, independent MLAs, and possible abstentions.
Ieshan Wani, senior correspondent, CNN-News18, has over eight years of experience in reporting, producing and editing news for broadcast, digital and print platforms. His reporting has mostly been from Kashmir….Read More
Ieshan Wani, senior correspondent, CNN-News18, has over eight years of experience in reporting, producing and editing news for broadcast, digital and print platforms. His reporting has mostly been from Kashmir…. Read More
Jammu and Kashmir, India, India
October 18, 2025, 16:43 IST
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