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Analysts point out that market performance will hinge on factors such as corporate earnings growth, GDP expansion, and foreign portfolio investor inflows
Analysts recommend managing expectations, steering clear of crowded themes, and prioritising corporate earnings growth.
The new Samvat 2082 has begun, and investors are cautiously optimistic about the stock market’s prospects after a muted performance last year. In Samvat 2081, Nifty and Sensex ended a two-year streak of strong growth, delivering modest returns. Nifty rose by 6.8% and Sensex by 5.8%, while Nifty Midcap 100 grew 5.8%. Nifty Smallcap 100, however, fell 2.1% after surging over 30% in the previous two Samvats.
Experts say that although spectacular gains are unlikely in the coming year, steady returns are still possible. Analysts point out that market performance will hinge on factors such as corporate earnings growth, GDP expansion, and foreign portfolio investor inflows.
In Samvat 2081, weak corporate results, US tariffs, and foreign investor sell-offs weighed on the market. Sector-wise, financials and automobiles delivered the strongest returns, while IT, energy, and real estate lagged. Looking ahead, analysts expect banking, pharmaceuticals, and cement sectors to perform better in Samvat 2082.
“Earnings momentum is returning in the banking sector,” said Jyotivardhan Jaipuria, founder and MD of Valentis Advisors, adding, “Concerns over tariffs on generic drugs have eased, which is positive for pharma. Cement prices are rising after two years, which could support returns.”
He expects investors could see returns of 10-12%, with company income growth around 14%. “Valuations are now reasonable, so returns should largely reflect earnings growth,” he said.
Jimit Modi, CEO of Samco Group, cautioned investors to temper expectations, saying, “Extraordinary gains seen after the pandemic are unlikely to repeat. Avoid chasing crowded themes like gold or silver.”
According to a recent Nomura report, corporate earnings are expected to improve from FY27, with Nifty 50 projected to reach 26,140 by March 2026. Analysts said supportive measures such as government tax and GST reforms, RBI rate cuts, and credit-boosting steps may help the market. However, weak domestic demand, slow employment and wage growth, and low savings rates could limit potential gains.
October 22, 2025, 13:54 IST
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