Reliance Q2 Results Today: Retail, Jio, O2C To Drive Earnings Growth | Markets News

RIL Q2 Results Today

Reliance Industries (RIL) Q2 Results Today: Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) is expected to report robust earnings growth for the September quarter (Q2 FY26), supported by firm refining margins and continued expansion in its consumer-facing businesses — Reliance Retail and Jio. According to the median of nine analysts’ estimates, the company’s net profit is likely to increase 11 percent year-on-year to about Rs 18,450 crore, while consolidated EBITDA is projected to rise 14 percent to Rs 44,400 crore, led by gains across its oil-to-chemicals (O2C), retail, and digital services segments.

Strong Refining Margins, Weak Rupee to Aid O2C

Refining margins remained firm through the quarter, driven by strong diesel and jet fuel spreads, along with a weaker rupee that improved export realisations. Axis Capital and UBS expect RIL’s O2C EBITDA to grow over 20 percent YoY, while J.P. Morgan estimates an even higher 26 percent rise, backed by better cracks and improved product spreads. HSBC also anticipates a strong quarter for the O2C segment, citing favourable refining conditions and steady performance in the broader energy business.

Retail and Jio Maintain Growth Momentum

Both Reliance Retail and Jio are expected to sustain their positive growth trajectory. UBS forecasts retail revenue growth of over 13 percent YoY, led by the grocery and fashion segments, while Axis Capital projects a 13 percent increase in underlying EBITDA with stable margins. J.P. Morgan expects retail performance to remain robust, though slightly tempered by the recent GST rate cuts on select durables announced in September.

In the digital services segment, UBS and Nomura expect 15–16 percent YoY EBITDA growth, supported by continued subscriber additions and modest gains in average revenue per user (ARPU).

Upstream, New Energy and Long-Term Triggers

The upstream oil and gas business is expected to remain broadly stable, contributing modestly to overall earnings. Analysts note that investor focus will likely shift from near-term profit metrics to management commentary on Reliance’s emerging “Powering AI” ecosystem — which includes investments in data centres, renewable energy capacity, and collaborations with Meta, Google, and NVIDIA.

Brokerages such as Morgan Stanley and HSBC believe updates on these initiatives could serve as a long-term re-rating trigger, reinforcing Reliance’s positioning in next-generation digital and energy infrastructure, even if they have limited near-term earnings impact.

Consensus: Steady Quarter, Positive Outlook

Across brokerages, consensus points to a steady and broad-based Q2 performance. J.P. Morgan forecasts 14 percent YoY EBITDA growth and 12 percent profit growth, though it cautions that higher depreciation and interest expenses may limit profit flow-through. Most firms — including UBS, Axis Capital, Kotak, HSBC, and Morgan Stanley — maintain ‘Buy’ or ‘Overweight’ ratings, with target prices ranging between Rs 1,700 and Rs 1,780. Analysts remain confident in RIL’s diversified earnings mix and its gradual transition from an energy-driven to consumer- and technology-led business model.

Investors will closely watch management guidance on telecom tariffs, retail demand trends, and updates on new energy initiatives, which could shape the company’s performance trajectory for the remainder of FY26.

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