{"id":19799,"date":"2025-10-21T20:55:16","date_gmt":"2025-10-21T20:55:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tezgyan.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/21\/barely-1-in-3-diwali-stock-picks-beat-the-market-says-devina-mehra-on-stock-predictions-markets-news\/"},"modified":"2025-10-21T20:55:16","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T20:55:16","slug":"barely-1-in-3-diwali-stock-picks-beat-the-market-says-devina-mehra-on-stock-predictions-markets-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tezgyan.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/21\/barely-1-in-3-diwali-stock-picks-beat-the-market-says-devina-mehra-on-stock-predictions-markets-news\/","title":{"rendered":"Barely 1 In 3 Diwali Stock Picks Beat The Market, Says Devina Mehra On Stock Predictions | Markets News"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"story-9649133\">\n<p><span class=\"jsx-395e0e0beb19cb6e jsx-4143937483\">Last Updated:<\/span><time class=\"jsx-395e0e0beb19cb6e jsx-4143937483\">October 21, 2025, 11:06 IST<\/time><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"asubttl-9649133\" class=\"jsx-c9f81425ec968c48 jsx-2130647709 asubttl-schema\">Devina Mehra of First Global warns that expert stock and index predictions for Samvat 2082 are unreliable, citing data showing most Diwali pick forecasts often miss the mark.<\/h2>\n<div class=\"jsx-cc1b15cf85effb8b artsharwrp\"><a href=\"https:\/\/news18.co\/gnps-en-btn\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"jsx-91f4da8d48c13a79 gglebtn bgsky\"\/><\/p>\n<div id=\"artshare\" class=\"jsx-cc1b15cf85effb8b artshare\">\n<div class=\"jsx-cc1b15cf85effb8b stickdiv\">\n<div class=\"jsx-cc1b15cf85effb8b deskwrapstkdiv\">\n<div class=\"jsx-cc1b15cf85effb8b fontchange\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.news18.com\/dlxczavtqcctuei\/news18\/static\/images\/english\/font.svg\" height=\"30px\" width=\"30px\" alt=\"font\" title=\"font\" class=\"jsx-cc1b15cf85effb8b lazyload\"\/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<figure class=\"jsx-c9f81425ec968c48 jsx-2130647709 amimg\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Diwali Stock Picks 2025.\" title=\"Diwali Stock Picks 2025.\" src=\"https:\/\/images.news18.com\/ibnlive\/uploads\/2021\/07\/1627283897_news18_logo-1200x800.jpg?impolicy=website&amp;width=400&amp;height=225\" loading=\"eager\" fetchpriority=\"high\" class=\"jsx-c9f81425ec968c48 jsx-2130647709\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Diwali Stock Picks 2025.<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<p id=\"0\" class=\"story_para_0\">Even as the Samvat 2082 starts today with a one-hour special Muhurat trading session to take place between 1:45 pm and 2:45 pm, various brokerages have given recommendations for the next Samvat. In light of this, Devina Mehra, founder and chairperson of First Global, said yearly cycle of \u201cexpert&#8221; predictions are not just misguided but \u201cfundamentally unknowable&#8221;. Her argument, she said, is backed by hard data.<\/p>\n<p id=\"1\" class=\"story_para_1\">\u201cThe projections don\u2019t tell you anything at all. Everyone is equally clueless but they are in the media and speak with great authority. Remind yourself then that confidence is not equal to competence,&#8221; Mehra said in a post on X.<\/p>\n<div class=\"twtiframe\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Eagerly taking down every expert\u2019s Diwali picks and their Nifty projections for the coming Samvat? Planning to use those to guide your Investments?The facts may startle you!<\/p>\n<p>Here is the data by <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/livemint?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\">@livemint<\/a> on what happened to last year\u2019s Diwali picks \u2013 only one third of them\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/lKG3jvoP8k\" rel=\"nofollow\">pic.twitter.com\/lKG3jvoP8k<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Devina Mehra (@devinamehra) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/devinamehra\/status\/1980163609281139013?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\">October 20, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<p id=\"2\" class=\"story_para_2\">Sharing a <em>Mint<\/em> article on X, Mehra highlighted how last year\u2019s Diwali stock recommendations failed to deliver. Only one third of them were in positive territory \u2013 an even lower number out performed the index. The year before that wasn\u2019t much better, with 49% of picks turning a profit, barely the odds of a coin toss. According to her, random stock selection would have yielded a better chance of success than following festive-season tips.<\/p>\n<p id=\"3\" class=\"story_para_3\"><strong>Also Read:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.news18.com\/business\/markets\/want-to-invest-for-a-year-brokerages-recommend-these-stocks-as-diwali-2025-picks-ws-l-9637761.html\">Brokerages Recommend These Stocks As Diwali 2025 Picks<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"4\" class=\"story_para_4\">\u201cAs for the index projections, go back to earlier years and see what each of the experts had predicted and what happened. The truth? It\u2019s in a category called \u2018Objective Ignorance\u2019 in the book \u2018Noise\u2019, by Daniel Kahneman, Cass R. Sunstein, &amp; Olivier Sibony. Index predictions are only one example of humans forecasting things which are not just not known, but cannot be known. Yet they are made with huge conviction &amp; confidence, in January and Diwali time,&#8221; Mehra said.<\/p>\n<p id=\"5\" class=\"story_para_5\">She said Bloomberg recently collected the data of index estimates on S&amp;P 500 projections from leading Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Deutsche Bank. On average, these forecasts missed the mark by 15 percentage points, meaning a predicted 5% gain could easily become a 20% surge or a 10% fall.<\/p>\n<p id=\"6\" class=\"story_para_6\">Mehra also pointed out how forecasters tend to play it safe, crowding around 0\u201310% return estimates. Yet, over nearly a century of S&amp;P 500 history, the market has actually moved within that narrow band only 14% of the time.<\/p>\n<p id=\"7\" class=\"story_para_7\">She ended on a nuanced note, suggesting that long-term projections \u2014 spanning 10 to 20 years \u2014 may have some merit. But for those who rely on confident one-year forecasts, Mehra left a final reminder: confidence is not competence.<\/p>\n<div class=\"jsx-95088aad1b3c53cd atawrap\">\n<div class=\"jsx-95088aad1b3c53cd atadetailwrp\">\n<div class=\"jsx-95088aad1b3c53cd ataname\"><span class=\"jsx-95088aad1b3c53cd atthumb\"><\/p>\n<figure class=\"jsx-95088aad1b3c53cd\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Business Desk\" title=\"Business Desk\" src=\"data:image\/jpeg;base64,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\" class=\"jsx-95088aad1b3c53cd\"\/><\/figure>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"jsx-95088aad1b3c53cd attitle\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.news18.com\/byline\/business-desk-19052.html\" class=\"jsx-95088aad1b3c53cd atamail\">Business Desk<\/a><\/p>\n<p>A team of writers and reporters decodes vast terms of personal finance and making money matters simpler for you. From latest initial public offerings (IPOs) in the market to best investment options, we cover al&#8230;<span class=\"jsx-95088aad1b3c53cd aurpdebtn\">Read More<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>A team of writers and reporters decodes vast terms of personal finance and making money matters simpler for you. From latest initial public offerings (IPOs) in the market to best investment options, we cover al&#8230;<!-- --> <span class=\"jsx-95088aad1b3c53cd aurpdebtn\">Read More<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"jsx-c9f81425ec968c48 jsx-2130647709 artcta\"><a href=\"https:\/\/news18.co\/n18egpab\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Follow News18 on Google<\/a>. Join the fun, play <a href=\"https:\/\/www.news18.com\/games\/\">QIK games on News18<\/a>. 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Also <span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Download the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/onelink.to\/eng-article-eop\">News18 App<\/a> to stay updated.<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"jsx-c9f81425ec968c48 jsx-2130647709 atbtlink fp\"><span>First Published:<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"rs\">\n<p>October 21, 2025, 11:06 IST<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"jsx-c9f81425ec968c48 jsx-2130647709 brdcrmb\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.news18.com\/\">News<\/a>  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.news18.com\/business\/\">business<\/a>  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.news18.com\/business\/markets\/\">markets<\/a>  <span class=\"brdout\"> Barely 1 In 3 Diwali Stock Picks Beat The Market, Says Devina Mehra On Stock Predictions<\/span><\/div>\n<div id=\"coral-wrap\" class=\"jsx-ba4d8f086a12294f \">\n<div class=\"jsx-ba4d8f086a12294f coral-cont\">\n<div class=\"jsx-ba4d8f086a12294f coltoptxt\">Disclaimer: Comments reflect users\u2019 views, not News18\u2019s. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.news18.com\/disclaimer\/\" class=\"jsx-ba4d8f086a12294f\">Terms of Use<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.news18.com\/privacy_policy\/\" class=\"jsx-ba4d8f086a12294f\">Privacy Policy<\/a>.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><span class=\"jsx-c9f81425ec968c48 jsx-2130647709 rmbtn news18_read_more\">Read More<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.news18.com\/business\/markets\/barely-1-in-3-diwali-stock-picks-beat-the-market-says-devina-mehra-on-stock-predictions-ws-l-9649133.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last Updated:October 21, 2025, 11:06 IST Devina Mehra of First Global warns that expert stock and index predictions for Samvat 2082 are unreliable, citing data showing most Diwali pick forecasts often miss the mark. Diwali Stock Picks 2025. Even as the Samvat 2082 starts today with a one-hour special Muhurat trading session to take place&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8736,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19799","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tezgyan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19799","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tezgyan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tezgyan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tezgyan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tezgyan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19799"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/tezgyan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19799\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tezgyan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8736"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tezgyan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19799"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tezgyan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19799"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tezgyan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19799"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}